Research

AIG recovered sequentially in Q2, but EPS and pre-tax margin remained below last year. At $74.85, the shares already approximate a reasonable value for the current earnings run rate.

Q2 revenue rose 8.6% and EPS increased 11.0%, helped by a 1.9-point pre-tax margin expansion. At $320.73, the shares already approximate our $321.40 fair value.

Bank of America delivered broader revenue growth, better credit and a 17.0% tangible return. The improvement is real, but $62.57 already discounts more than our base case.

BlackRock paired record AUM with 31% revenue growth and a wider margin. The operating thesis improved, but a 25.4x trailing P/E leaves the shares near our $1,100 fair value.

BNY converted 13.3% revenue growth into 26.9% EPS growth as its pre-tax margin reached 39.8%. The operating case improved, but a $162.59 share price leaves little room for normalization.

Operating earnings rose 16.3%, but insurance profits declined and currency helped the result. At $507, the shares sit near our $540 base-case value.

Revenue rose 14% and RoTCE reached 13%, strengthening the turnaround case. At $138.50, however, Citigroup already trades close to our $145 base value.

Capital One’s revenue, margin and EPS recovered sharply, helped by lower credit provisions. The print supports normalization, but integration costs and reserve volatility still cap fair value.

Capital One’s revenue and margins improved, but lower provisions supplied much of the earnings rebound. Fair value stays at $225 as integration costs and credit normalization limit the case for expansion.

Revenue and pre-tax profitability weakened sharply, but Coinbase remained free-cash-flow positive. At $172.28, the shares sit close to our $174 base value.