ASTS · Q2 FY2026
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Q2 FY2026 earnings analysis
By SageNoodle ResearchNeutral
| Metric | Actual | Estimate | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.5M | $1.2M (yr ago) | Beat |
| EPS | -$0.77 | -$0.41 (yr ago) | Miss |
| Free Cash Flow | -$1.00B (H1; quarterly figure not disclosed) | -$502.6M (H1 yr ago) | Miss |
| Gross Margin | 25.2% | 100.0% (yr ago) | Miss |
| Operating Margin | -944.1% | -6,297.3% (yr ago) | Beat |
What changed
Revenue rose to $31.5 million from $1.2 million a year earlier as gateway deliveries and U.S. Government milestones began converting development activity into reported sales. Backlog reached approximately $1.30 billion and the in-orbit fleet grew to 13 spacecraft, but first-half free cash flow fell to approximately negative $1.00 billion as capital spending nearly doubled year over year.
Impact on the investment thesis
Fair value remains $45 per share because the revenue ramp and larger backlog support prior commercialization assumptions, while higher spending and the absence of scaled commercial service prevent an upward revision. At $59.91, the shares remain overvalued under the stated scenario framework.